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Арабский мир полностью обречен, и шансов у него один на миллион


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Есть определенная ветвь американского консерватизма, которую лучше всех олицетворяет Марк Штейн (Mark Steyn) из и Джонатан Ласт (Jonathan Last) из . Эти люди придают огромное значение демографии, называя «истинным» мерилом силы и влияния страны ее общий коэффициент рождаемости. Столь неослабное внимание к рождаемости создает странный эффект. Люди, подобные Штейну и Ласту, начинают превозносить значимость и влияние арабского мира, к которому они питают просто осязаемое отвращение, и который имеет исключительно высокие показатели рождаемости, а также обладает молодым и быстро увеличивающимся населением. Действительно, если сосредоточиться  только на рождаемости арабского мира, то он выглядит многообещающе, и кажется, вот-вот начнет доминировать на нашей планете.

Однако он начинает казаться намного менее обнадеживающим и перспективным, если учесть такие масштабные процессы как климатические изменения и индустриализация Азии (что ведет к существенному росту цен на природные ресурсы). Обозреватель и автор таких хорошо известных книг как «The World is Flat» и «Hot, Flat, and Crowded» Томас Фридман (Thomas Friedman) часто подвергается насмешкам, его называют олицетворением поверхностности, а его аналитические способности (как и у большинства ученых мужей в США) оставляют желать лучшего. Фридман также имеет склонность к словесным ляпам, таким как его известное предостережение: «Когда вы все в одной яме, прекращайте копать. Когда вы в трех ямах, доставайте побольше лопат». Как вполне можно было ожидать от человека такого положения, Фридман с самого начала с энтузиазмом поддержал арабскую весну и написал немало статей о том, что арабский мир очень быстро воспользуется преимуществами, возникающими в связи со свержением ненавистных старых режимов, и что «революция Facebook» ускорит процесс долговременных изменений, политической и экономической либерализации.

Но сегодня реакционные силы религии наращивают свое влияние во всем арабском мире, а те маленькие группы либералов, что встали во главе восстаний в их начальный период, разгромлены и вытеснены на обочину. В связи с этим Фридман кажется далеко не самым лучшим кладезем мудрости на тему ближневосточного будущего. Но надо отдавать должное там, где ему место, и следует отметить, что недавно Фридман написал по-настоящему выдающуюся статью, в которой признал свои прежние ошибки и выступил с несвойственными ему вдумчивыми и глубокими комментариями по целому ряду важных тенденций.

Его основной довод заключается в следующем. Торговля пшеницей осуществляется в огромных объемах в общемировом масштабе. Рынок зерна удивительно неликвиден, и внезапное сокращение поставок всего в несколько стран может вызвать существенное увеличение мировых цен (а они с июня 2010 по февраль 2011 года выросли вдвое). Это колоссальная проблема для такой страны как Египет, который, имея огромное население и ничтожно малые площади пригодных для возделывания земель, вынужден импортировать основную часть потребляемого в стране зерна (Египет в особо неблагоприятном положении, ибо его правительство продает продовольствие с большими скидками, и увеличение цен на пшеницу очень быстро может создать там бюджетный кризис). Более того, из-за глобального потепления засухи, способные уменьшить объем мирового предложения по зерну, происходят все чаще; и некоторые из самых важных стран-производителей пшеницы за последние три года пережили такие засухи, которые бывают раз в сто лет. В результате возникла ситуация, в которой, как говорит Фридман, «все взаимосвязано: засуха в Китае и пожары в России привели к нехватке пшеницы, что вызвало рост цен на хлеб, который стал одной из причин протестов на площади Тахрир. Называйте это глобализацией риска». Похоже, он прав: глобализация торговли означает, что ее преимущества распространяются быстрее, чем прежде; но это также означает, что сдерживать риски и опасности становится невозможно.

Фридман даже отметил нечто такое, чего я никогда не слышал в ведущих средствах массовой информации: что беспорядки в Сирии на самом деле вызваны мощной засухой, которая произошла там в 2009 году. По-видимому, в результате крупной засухи более 800000 (!) сирийцев, или около 5% населения страны потеряли все свои средства к существованию. Это привело к массовому и быстрому исходу в города крестьян, пастухов и семей, занимающихся сельским хозяйством. А это самая консервативная и религиозная часть сирийского общества. Знакомого с историей человека не может шокировать то обстоятельство, что быстрый наплыв крестьян в города ведет к беспорядкам и политической нестабильности (важная роль переселившегося в города крестьянства в разжигании революции это то, что уже в ходе первых лекций узнает студент, изучающий историю России). То, что мы никогда не слышали об этой массовой миграции, является убийственным приговором западным репортерам. Даже не зная ничего прочего об этой стране, вполне можно было ожидать, что там возникнет нестабильность и хаос, когда за неполные два года 5% ее населения переселилось в города.

В анализе Фридмана радует то, что он полностью избегает любых сентиментальных представлений о демократии, государственном управлении и шансах на успех. Системы государственного управления рассматриваемых стран имеют второстепенное значение в сравнении с гораздо более мощными и влиятельными демографическими и климатическими факторами, оказывающими свое воздействие на Ближний Восток. Это довольно странно для медийной культуры, но неустанно подчеркивая «оптимизм», Фридман кажется исключительным пессимистом. Он даже доходит до предположения о том, что новые «демократические» режимы в Египте, Тунисе и Ливии будут даже в меньшей степени способны отвечать на ждущие их вызовы, чем те самовластные правители, которых они свергли. А это уже равноценно ереси, когда такое появляется на страницах New York Times.

Но если к аргументам Фридмана отнестись серьезно, нам придется сделать вывод о том, что арабский мир обречен, и что предотвратить это не в состоянии практически никто. В частности, Египет и Сирия слишком бедны, слишком необразованны, там слишком силен фундаментализм и роль государства, и они слишком сильно закоснели, чтобы добиваться успеха и преуспевать даже в благоприятной международной среде, не говоря уже о ситуации, когда часто происходят засухи, а цены на зерно резко увеличиваются. Я давно уже был уверен в том, что у арабской весны неутешительное будущее, однако те климатические данные, которые приводит Фридман, просто ужасают. С 2006 по 2011 год 60 процентов земель в Сирии пережили самую страшную за всю историю засуху. Если задуматься об этом, задуматься о том, что в основном сельское и аграрное общество столкнулось со страшнейшей засухой, то восстание против Асада начинает казаться намного менее таинственным, а перспективы долговременного и прочного политического урегулирования намного менее вероятными. Конечно, сирийцы в ярости, они ужасно страдают, и им нужен кто-то, кого можно обвинить в их проблемах. Но причины их страданий и невзгод (это климатические изменения и возникающие в результате погодные аномалии) не поддаются быстрому и простому решению.

Итак, хотя на первый взгляд Ближний Восток и его молодое, бурно растущее население вроде бы могут с уверенностью смотреть в будущее, в действительности они находятся на краю пропасти и все больше к ней приближаются.


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* Barrel: 950 platinum<br />* Cap: 950 platinum inlaid with mother-of-pearl Montblanc emblem<br />* Trim: Three rings in 18 K gold embossed with the Montblanc brand name<br />* Clip: Clip in 18 K gold with individual serial number<br><em>Montblanc Platinum Meisterstuck Fountain Pen Worth Description</em><p>Fountain pen with piston converter, 18 K gold nib with rhodium-plated inlay, barrel and cap made of 950 platinum inlaid with mother-of-pearl Montblanc emblem, 18 K gold clip and rings.</p><p>New since 1924: The Meisterstuck 149 fountain pen is one of the best-known and most famous writing instruments of our time. Hand-crafted in the best European tradition, its 18 K hand-ground gold nib with platinum inlay, three gold-plated rings, gold-plated clip and deep black precious resin barrel make this luxurious writing instrument a legend among fountain pens. Fountain pen with piston converter, 18 K gold nib with rhodium-plated inlay, barrel and cap made of 950 platinum inlaid with mother-of-pearl Montblanc emblem, 18 K gold clip and rings.Diamond color in order to prevail in kind.</p></div>


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Replica Omega 123.10.38.21.02.001 Men - Constellation series of mechanical watches [3236]
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<div style="font-weight:bold; padding-bottom:10px; font-size:14px;">Replica Omega 123.10.38.21.02.001 Men - Constellation series of mechanical watches [3236]</div>

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<dl><dt>Series</dt><dd>Constellation</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Style</dt><dd title="">
Men</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Movement</dt><dd title="">
Automatic mechanical movement</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Movement Type</dt><dd title="8500">
Omega 8500</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Case</dt><dd title="">
Steel</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Size</dt><dd title="38mm">
38mm</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Thickness</dt><dd title="9mm">
9mm</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Crown</dt><dd title="">
General</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Bottom of the table</dt><dd title="">
Back through</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Table Mirror</dt><dd title="">
Sapphire crystal glass</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Dial</dt><dd title="">
Silver</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Watchband</dt><dd title="">
Steel</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Strap Color</dt><dd title="">
Silver</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Clasp</dt><dd title="">
Folding clasp</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Waterproof</dt><dd title="100m">
100m</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Package</dt><dd title=",,">
Jingmeilihe , warranty cards, brochures, etc.</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Function</dt><dd title="">
Calendar</dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Release Year</dt><dd>
-
</dd></dl>
<p><strong>[Brand Story ]</strong></p><p>In 1848, the birth of the Swiss Confederation , Louis Brandt (Louis Brandt) and La Chaux-de -Fonds (La Chaux-de-Fonds) began to watch assembly work . In 1880, Louis Brandt 's sons Louis-Paul and Csar will plant relocation to adequate manpower, abundant resources and convenient transportation , Bill (Bienne) region . Since then, the use of mechanized production, unified specification parts , and the introduction of the new division of labor system assembly work , put the system out precise and accurate , high quality and affordable watches .</p><p>19 world-famous Omega Order movement in 1894 after the launch , it has not only become a symbol of excellence , the company also named " Omega ." Since that time , Omega with its advanced watchmaking technology, becoming a pioneer in the watch industry one hundred and fifty years . Hundred and fifty years since , OMEGA firmly in the vanguard position in the world of watchmaking , laid a remarkable achievement.</p><p>In 1900, the Paris World's Fair . Under the Eiffel Tower , the Omega series of its outstanding performance models received the highest honor awarded by the International Committee of assessment , the fame of the Greek temple (Greek Temple) carved table is one of pure gold .</p><p>In sports, the Omega is the Olympic Games ( including requiring extremely accurate and swimming competitions projects ) and in the United States , Canada, Australia, Japan , held auto racing -team tournament (CART) specified timing devices. In terms of technology and design , Omega only has numerous accurate records, and excellent design , pioneered a number of technologies, such as the manufacturing center of the world 's first tourbillon watch .</p><p>Omega World , only superior quality watches before being displayed at more than one hundred thirty countries , senior windows . Celebrity multi- table this proud American supermodel Cindy Crawford (Cindy Crawford), 007 Pierce Brosnan (Pierce Brosnan), Schumacher Michael Schumacher (Michael Schumacher) and Swiss tennis princess Mary Tina Hingis (Martina Hingis) were chosen to wear the Omega .</p><p><strong></div>

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