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Арабский мир полностью обречен, и шансов у него один на миллион


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Есть определенная ветвь американского консерватизма, которую лучше всех олицетворяет Марк Штейн (Mark Steyn) из и Джонатан Ласт (Jonathan Last) из . Эти люди придают огромное значение демографии, называя «истинным» мерилом силы и влияния страны ее общий коэффициент рождаемости. Столь неослабное внимание к рождаемости создает странный эффект. Люди, подобные Штейну и Ласту, начинают превозносить значимость и влияние арабского мира, к которому они питают просто осязаемое отвращение, и который имеет исключительно высокие показатели рождаемости, а также обладает молодым и быстро увеличивающимся населением. Действительно, если сосредоточиться  только на рождаемости арабского мира, то он выглядит многообещающе, и кажется, вот-вот начнет доминировать на нашей планете.

Однако он начинает казаться намного менее обнадеживающим и перспективным, если учесть такие масштабные процессы как климатические изменения и индустриализация Азии (что ведет к существенному росту цен на природные ресурсы). Обозреватель и автор таких хорошо известных книг как «The World is Flat» и «Hot, Flat, and Crowded» Томас Фридман (Thomas Friedman) часто подвергается насмешкам, его называют олицетворением поверхностности, а его аналитические способности (как и у большинства ученых мужей в США) оставляют желать лучшего. Фридман также имеет склонность к словесным ляпам, таким как его известное предостережение: «Когда вы все в одной яме, прекращайте копать. Когда вы в трех ямах, доставайте побольше лопат». Как вполне можно было ожидать от человека такого положения, Фридман с самого начала с энтузиазмом поддержал арабскую весну и написал немало статей о том, что арабский мир очень быстро воспользуется преимуществами, возникающими в связи со свержением ненавистных старых режимов, и что «революция Facebook» ускорит процесс долговременных изменений, политической и экономической либерализации.

Но сегодня реакционные силы религии наращивают свое влияние во всем арабском мире, а те маленькие группы либералов, что встали во главе восстаний в их начальный период, разгромлены и вытеснены на обочину. В связи с этим Фридман кажется далеко не самым лучшим кладезем мудрости на тему ближневосточного будущего. Но надо отдавать должное там, где ему место, и следует отметить, что недавно Фридман написал по-настоящему выдающуюся статью, в которой признал свои прежние ошибки и выступил с несвойственными ему вдумчивыми и глубокими комментариями по целому ряду важных тенденций.

Его основной довод заключается в следующем. Торговля пшеницей осуществляется в огромных объемах в общемировом масштабе. Рынок зерна удивительно неликвиден, и внезапное сокращение поставок всего в несколько стран может вызвать существенное увеличение мировых цен (а они с июня 2010 по февраль 2011 года выросли вдвое). Это колоссальная проблема для такой страны как Египет, который, имея огромное население и ничтожно малые площади пригодных для возделывания земель, вынужден импортировать основную часть потребляемого в стране зерна (Египет в особо неблагоприятном положении, ибо его правительство продает продовольствие с большими скидками, и увеличение цен на пшеницу очень быстро может создать там бюджетный кризис). Более того, из-за глобального потепления засухи, способные уменьшить объем мирового предложения по зерну, происходят все чаще; и некоторые из самых важных стран-производителей пшеницы за последние три года пережили такие засухи, которые бывают раз в сто лет. В результате возникла ситуация, в которой, как говорит Фридман, «все взаимосвязано: засуха в Китае и пожары в России привели к нехватке пшеницы, что вызвало рост цен на хлеб, который стал одной из причин протестов на площади Тахрир. Называйте это глобализацией риска». Похоже, он прав: глобализация торговли означает, что ее преимущества распространяются быстрее, чем прежде; но это также означает, что сдерживать риски и опасности становится невозможно.

Фридман даже отметил нечто такое, чего я никогда не слышал в ведущих средствах массовой информации: что беспорядки в Сирии на самом деле вызваны мощной засухой, которая произошла там в 2009 году. По-видимому, в результате крупной засухи более 800000 (!) сирийцев, или около 5% населения страны потеряли все свои средства к существованию. Это привело к массовому и быстрому исходу в города крестьян, пастухов и семей, занимающихся сельским хозяйством. А это самая консервативная и религиозная часть сирийского общества. Знакомого с историей человека не может шокировать то обстоятельство, что быстрый наплыв крестьян в города ведет к беспорядкам и политической нестабильности (важная роль переселившегося в города крестьянства в разжигании революции это то, что уже в ходе первых лекций узнает студент, изучающий историю России). То, что мы никогда не слышали об этой массовой миграции, является убийственным приговором западным репортерам. Даже не зная ничего прочего об этой стране, вполне можно было ожидать, что там возникнет нестабильность и хаос, когда за неполные два года 5% ее населения переселилось в города.

В анализе Фридмана радует то, что он полностью избегает любых сентиментальных представлений о демократии, государственном управлении и шансах на успех. Системы государственного управления рассматриваемых стран имеют второстепенное значение в сравнении с гораздо более мощными и влиятельными демографическими и климатическими факторами, оказывающими свое воздействие на Ближний Восток. Это довольно странно для медийной культуры, но неустанно подчеркивая «оптимизм», Фридман кажется исключительным пессимистом. Он даже доходит до предположения о том, что новые «демократические» режимы в Египте, Тунисе и Ливии будут даже в меньшей степени способны отвечать на ждущие их вызовы, чем те самовластные правители, которых они свергли. А это уже равноценно ереси, когда такое появляется на страницах New York Times.

Но если к аргументам Фридмана отнестись серьезно, нам придется сделать вывод о том, что арабский мир обречен, и что предотвратить это не в состоянии практически никто. В частности, Египет и Сирия слишком бедны, слишком необразованны, там слишком силен фундаментализм и роль государства, и они слишком сильно закоснели, чтобы добиваться успеха и преуспевать даже в благоприятной международной среде, не говоря уже о ситуации, когда часто происходят засухи, а цены на зерно резко увеличиваются. Я давно уже был уверен в том, что у арабской весны неутешительное будущее, однако те климатические данные, которые приводит Фридман, просто ужасают. С 2006 по 2011 год 60 процентов земель в Сирии пережили самую страшную за всю историю засуху. Если задуматься об этом, задуматься о том, что в основном сельское и аграрное общество столкнулось со страшнейшей засухой, то восстание против Асада начинает казаться намного менее таинственным, а перспективы долговременного и прочного политического урегулирования намного менее вероятными. Конечно, сирийцы в ярости, они ужасно страдают, и им нужен кто-то, кого можно обвинить в их проблемах. Но причины их страданий и невзгод (это климатические изменения и возникающие в результате погодные аномалии) не поддаются быстрому и простому решению.

Итак, хотя на первый взгляд Ближний Восток и его молодое, бурно растущее население вроде бы могут с уверенностью смотреть в будущее, в действительности они находятся на краю пропасти и все больше к ней приближаются.


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alt="/moncler146/Mens-Moncler-Vests/Moncler-Down-Unisex-Vest-Quilted-Warmer-Body-Navy-8.jpg"/></a></p><p style='text-align:center;'><a target="_blank" href="http://www.monclerwomen.org/images//moncler146/Mens-Moncler-Vests/Moncler-Down-Unisex-Vest-Quilted-Warmer-Body-Navy-9.jpg"> <a href="http://www.monclerwomen.org/moncler-down-unisex-vest-quilted-warmer-body-navy-p-35.html" ><img src="http://www.monclerwomen.org/images//moncler146/Mens-Moncler-Vests/Moncler-Down-Unisex-Vest-Quilted-Warmer-Body-Navy-9.jpg" width=650px alt="/moncler146/Mens-Moncler-Vests/Moncler-Down-Unisex-Vest-Quilted-Warmer-Body-Navy-9.jpg"/></a></p><p style='text-align:center;'><a target="_blank" href="http://www.monclerwomen.org/images//moncler146/Mens-Moncler-Vests/Moncler-Down-Unisex-Vest-Quilted-Warmer-Body-Navy-10.jpg"> <a href="http://www.monclerwomen.org/moncler-down-unisex-vest-quilted-warmer-body-navy-p-35.html" ><img 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Rolex Day-Date Swiss ETA 2836 Movement Diamond Bezel and Dial-Black Marking [2a3d]
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<th colspan="2">Attributes</th>
<tr>
<td>Movement</td>
<td>Swiss Automatic </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Strap Material</td>
<td>Stainless Steel </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Strap Colors</td>
<td>Stainless Steel </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dial Colors</td>
<td>Silver </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gender</td>
<td>Man Size</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Weight</td>
<td>0.19kilogram</td>
</tr>
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<h4> Watch movement Swiss ETA 2836 Automatic Movement<br/>The cheap watch has a solid 316 stainless steel case in high quality<br/>Solid 316 Stainless Steel with High quality Diamond Strap<br/>The dial is protected a sapphire crystal glass<br/>Watch water resistant Water-Resistant<br/>The seconds hand has a smooth sweeping motion rather than the usual jumpy tick-tock<br/><p>Jubilee Bracelet with Crested Diamonds in Midlinks, Rolesor Conceal Clasp</p>Serial Number Engraved Between Lugs<br/>One Piece Screw down crown with Rolex Logo Engraved on the Tip of the Crown<br/>All Correct Markings and Engravings Exactly like the Authentics.<br/>Genuine Scratch Proof Sapphire Crystals Exactly like the Authentic<br/>Exact weight and Dimensions to the Authentic<br/><br/>Free Shipping on all Orders Worldwide. <br/>The Pictures you see are of actually taken at the Studio of our site, You will get exactly what you see in our Pictures <br /><br />
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<div class="Pro_box" id="products_description"><p>This is new arrival from moncler,when you sight at it,you will fall in love with the <strong>2014 New! Moncler Coats On Sale For Womens Outlet Dark Grey</strong>,with the movable fur collar,it will keep you in warm and in luxurious way,with the fur on the cuff,you can take it as gloves,with waist belt,it collects various popular elements,high-end custom,Unique,expressing a woman&#39;s skill and temperament,reflecting the elegant woman flavor.if you are looking for a jacket for the winter,this one will certainly be the best choice.</p><p>Brand: Moncler<br />Sleeve: Long Sleeve<br />Filler: 90% white goose down<br />Lining Material: Polyester<br />Style segments: England<br />Fabric Material: Nylon<br />Plate type: Slim type<br />Dry clean or machine wash<br />Signature logo patch<br />Fabric Material:Nylon<br />Lining Material:Polyester<br />Brand new with retail packing<br />With tag</p><p>Why choose us:<br />--All our goods with the quality ensure by &#39;<strong>Moncler Coats Womens</strong>&#39;,luxurious and stylish.<br />- Offer free shipping to all over the world.<br />- All the&nbsp; goods have are brand new,filling witn the white goose down,light in weight as well as stylish.<br />- All the materials are through the careful selection and the top grade.<br />- Guarantee fast ship.<br />--We send out the package within 24 hours after the payment.4-7 days to worldwide.<br />--100% Satisfaction and Quality Guarantee.<br />--Any quality problem,we accept 15-day exchange or refund.</p></div></br><strong>Size: </strong> <a href="http://www.moncleroffical.com/2014-new-moncler-coats-on-sale-for-womens-outlet-dark-grey-p-1768.html" ><img src="http://www.moncleroffical.com/includes/templates/polo/images/size_chart.jpg" /></a></div>


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